A WotR Hunt Simulation with 10000 trials

Average results:
  • 5 successful hunts rolled (with 6 total hits and 5 total tiles drawn)
  • 2.8 reveals
  • 7.5 corruption inflicted
    Successful
    Hunts    		 Frequency Sum
    0 0.1% 0%
    1 0.9% 1%
    2 4.4% 5%
    3 11.1% 17%
    4 20.3% 37%
    5 24.5% 61%
    6 20.7% 82%
    7 12.1% 94%
    8 4.7% 99%
    9 1.1% 100%
    10 0.2% 100%


    Hits Frequency Sum
    0 0.1% 0%
    1 0.7% 1%
    2 2.8% 4%
    3 7.3% 11%
    4 13.3% 24%
    5 17.5% 42%
    6 19.1% 61%
    7 16.6% 77%
    8 11.5% 89%
    9 6.6% 95%
    10 3% 98%
    11 1.1% 99%
    12 0.4% 100%
    13 0.1% 100%
    14 0.1% 100%
    Reveals Frequency Sum
    0 2.6% 3%
    1 12.3% 15%
    2 26.2% 41%
    3 29.3% 70%
    4 19.5% 90%
    5 8% 98%
    6 1.9% 100%
    7 0.2% 100%

    Corruption Frequency Sum
    0 0.3% 0%
    1 1% 1%
    2 2.8% 4%
    3 5.1% 9%
    4 7.2% 16%
    5 10% 26%
    6 11.8% 38%
    7 13.2% 51%
    8 12.6% 64%
    9 10.9% 75%
    10 9.5% 84%
    11 6.5% 91%
    12 4.4% 95%
    13 2.4% 98%
    14 1.3% 99%
    15 0.6% 100%
    16 0.2% 100%
    17 0.1% 100%
    18 0.1% 100%
    Eyes To Hit Stronghold
    Tile?    		 Card
    Tile?
    Hunt 1:
    Hunt 2:
    Hunt 3:
    Hunt 4:
    Hunt 5:
    Hunt 6:
    Hunt 7:
    Hunt 8:
    Hunt 9:
    Hunt 10:
    Hunt 11:
    Hunt 12:
    Hunt 13:
    Hunt 14:
    Hunt 15:
    Trials:
    Notes
    Stronghold tiles ignore eyes and reveals (since you'll already be revealed if you're drawing a stronghold tile). Card tiles ignore eyes but count reveals, since I assumed you'll only play those when the fellowship is hidden. Count the Balrog as a Stronghold tile (if drawn when the fellowship was revealed) or as a Card tile (if drawn when the fellowship declared).

    If you played more than one hunt card between a single fellowship movement, just listed it before or after - the results will likely be close enough.

    If you include stronghold tiles in the simulation, it will slightly overcount expected reveals, since getting revealed via a stronghold actually removes reveal tiles from the hunt pool, reducing the chances of getting revealed later. But the simulation just gives you an extra tile regardless (for each stronghold tile selected). I'd estimate this is a small effect, perhaps ~0.2 - 0.5 extra reveals per stronghold tile included, but I don't really know.

    This simulation doesn't include gollum in any way, nor companions being used to reduce corruption.